If you’ve been following recent news about the strengthening El Niño, you may be wondering what it could mean for a Galapagos adventure in the months ahead.
It’s a reasonable question. El Niño can change ocean temperatures, rainfall, vegetation, and the behavior and distribution of some wildlife throughout the islands. But after 40 years of guiding Guests through the Galapagos—and operating through several El Niño events—we’ve learned something equally important: El Niño does not mean you’ve chosen the wrong time to visit.
The Galapagos is a wild ecosystem, not a place where every day follows a script. Conditions change from season to season and year to year, and those changes are part of what has shaped these islands for millennia.
In fact, an El Niño year can reveal a different side of the archipelago: greener landscapes, warmer water, flourishing terrestrial wildlife, and fascinating examples of adaptation unfolding in real time.
If you take one thing away from this article, let it be this: El Niño is a natural part of the Galapagos story. It may shape certain parts of your experience, but it doesn’t diminish what makes these islands extraordinary—or the memories you’ll take home with you.
Key Takeaways – El Niño in the Galapagos
- El Niño is strengthening, with NOAA forecasting a very strong 2026–27 event.
- Warmer waters can reduce marine productivity, affecting some Galapagos wildlife and feeding patterns.
- Increased rainfall can transform dry landscapes while benefiting vegetation and some terrestrial wildlife.
- El Niño changes the Galapagos experience, but it does not make the islands less extraordinary.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a recurring, though irregular, climate phenomenon that weakens Pacific trade winds and allows warmer water to spread eastward across the equatorial Pacific. That shift affects weather, ocean temperatures, and marine ecosystems around the world—including the Galapagos.
During a typical year, winds and equatorial currents push warmer surface water toward Australia and the western Pacific. In the eastern Pacific, cold, nutrient-rich water rises from below. That cold water helps make the Galapagos marine ecosystem so productive. Plankton feed on those nutrients. Fish feed on the plankton. And marine mammals, reptiles, and seabirds depend on that marine food web.
During El Niño, weaker trade winds allow more warm water to remain in the eastern Pacific. Upwelling becomes less productive, fewer nutrients reach the surface, and food can become less abundant for certain marine species.
At the same time, other parts of the Galapagos ecosystem can benefit from warmer, wetter conditions. It’s one of the remarkable contrasts of El Niño: while life beneath the surface can face greater challenges, life on land can become unusually abundant.
NOAA’s Forecast for the 2026–2027 El Niño
NOAA’s latest forecast says there is a greater than 90% chance of a “very strong” El Niño during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27. NOAA estimates a 69% chance that October–December 2026 will reach or exceed its historic +2.5°C RONI threshold, exceeding the strength of previous El Niño events in its record dating to 1950. You may see an event of this magnitude described as a “super El Niño” in news coverage.
There is an important distinction to make, however: forecasting the strength of El Niño is not the same as forecasting exactly what will happen in the Galapagos.
NOAA itself emphasizes that even with an event of this magnitude, the typical effects associated with El Niño are more likely, but they are not guaranteed. Sea temperatures around the islands are likely to be warmer than during a typical year, and lower marine productivity could affect wildlife that depends most heavily on cold-water food sources.
Exactly how much—and where—is something that will become clearer as conditions develop.
Why the Galapagos Feels El Niño So Strongly
Much of the Galapagos marine ecosystem is powered by cold water. Nutrient-rich currents—including the Humboldt Current from the south and the Cromwell Current rising in the western islands—help support algae, fish, and the extraordinary marine food web Guests come here to experience.
During El Niño, weaker trade winds allow warm surface water to build in the eastern Pacific, reducing the cold-water upwelling that normally delivers those nutrients. As algae and fish become less abundant in certain areas, animals that rely on them may need to travel farther or adjust their behavior.
The Galapagos is particularly sensitive to these changes because so many species evolved here in isolation and occupy specialized ecological niches. Yet there’s another side to that story. El Niño has been influencing these islands for thousands of years. The wildlife of the Galapagos didn't simply arrive in spite of this natural variability—many species evolved alongside it.
And seeing those responses firsthand can offer an extraordinary glimpse into the forces that continue to shape life here.
Download our detailed month-by-month guide to discover which animals you can see and what weather to expect.
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El Niño and the Story of Evolution
This is where El Niño becomes especially fascinating.
Nearly two centuries after Charles Darwin visited the Galapagos in 1835, the islands remain one of the world’s great natural laboratories for understanding evolution. Their isolation has allowed plants and animals to adapt to very specific environments—and changing environmental conditions can reveal those adaptations with unusual clarity.
El Niño can become one of those forces of natural selection. Darwin’s finches provide a classic example. In 1977, a severe drought reduced the availability of seeds, leaving behind larger, tougher seeds that were more difficult to crack. Finches with larger, stronger beaks had an advantage. Scientists Peter and Rosemary Grant documented an approximately 4% increase in average beak size following the drought.
Then conditions changed.
During an El Niño in the early 1980s, rain produced greater quantities of smaller, softer seeds. Under those conditions, smaller-beaked birds gained an advantage, and the Grants observed average beak size moving in the opposite direction. In just a few years, researchers had been able to observe natural selection responding to changing environmental conditions.
Marine iguanas offer another extraordinary example.
During periods when their food becomes scarce, these uniquely Galapagos reptiles can reduce their body length by as much as 20%, lowering their energy requirements. When conditions improve, they can grow again. It’s a remarkable adaptation—and one of many reminders that Galapagos wildlife has been responding to environmental change for a very long time.
What History Can Tell Us—And What It Can’t
Past El Niño events help scientists understand what is possible, but they do not provide a precise roadmap for what will happen in 2026–27. No two El Niños unfold in exactly the same way.
The particularly strong 1982–83 El Niño, for example, had major effects on parts of the Galapagos marine ecosystem. Research indicates that the Galapagos penguin population declined by more than three-quarters during that event, while coral mortality at surveyed shallow-water sites reached approximately 97%.
Another strong El Niño in the 1990s created an additional setback for penguins. Those numbers are significant, but they are also part of a much longer ecological story. Galapagos penguins survived those events and continued reproducing. Today, the archipelago is home to roughly 2,000 penguins, concentrated primarily around the cool, productive waters of Isabela and Fernandina.
The important lesson for travelers is not that history will repeat itself exactly. It is that the Galapagos is a dynamic ecosystem, and different species respond differently as conditions change. Scientists will be watching those responses closely throughout the coming El Niño, as will our Naturalist Guides, captains, and expedition team.
How Could El Niño Change Your Galapagos Experience?
The Galapagos remains truly wild despite being one of the world’s most celebrated adventure destinations. That means wildlife encounters vary naturally during every season and every year.
Quasar has been guiding adventurers through these islands since 1986, including through several El Niño events. In our experience, Guests who traveled during those periods still experienced what they came here for: extraordinary wildlife, beautiful landscapes, fascinating natural history, and the feeling of being immersed in one of the planet’s most unusual ecosystems.
The details may simply look a little different.
Here are some of the changes you could notice.
More Rain—and Greener Islands
El Niño generally brings more rainfall to the Galapagos. That does not necessarily mean days of continuous rain. During past events, our Guides have frequently experienced shorter showers or early-morning drizzle followed by clearer conditions as the day warmed.
The result can be a warmer, more tropical feeling throughout the islands. And the rain produces one of El Niño’s most beautiful transformations.
Along the coast—where approximately **90% of a Galapagos cruise experience takes place—**the landscape is normally a striking volcanic environment of lava, cactus, and hardy vegetation. Add rain, and this otherwise dry terrain can turn remarkably green.
It is a side of the Galapagos relatively few travelers ever see. And if a passing shower happens to join your excursion, both Quasar yachts carry ponchos for every Guest, so a little weather doesn’t need to interrupt the adventure.
Some Marine Wildlife May Be Less Abundant in Certain Areas
Warmer water and reduced marine productivity can influence species that depend heavily on cold-water food sources.
Toward the end of winter, you may encounter fewer sea lions, Galapagos penguins and marine iguanas in some locations.
Flightless cormorants and blue-footed boobies can also be affected because their food ultimately depends on the same productive marine ecosystem.
That does not mean these animals disappear from the Galapagos. Wildlife distribution and activity can shift from island to island and even from one visitor site to another. That is one reason experienced Naturalist Guides become particularly valuable when conditions are changing. They know the islands, understand animal behavior, and help Guests interpret not only what they see, but why they are seeing it.
Land Wildlife Can Flourish
El Niño tells a very different story on land. More rainfall means more vegetation, flowers, seeds, insects, and other food sources. For terrestrial wildlife, that abundance can create excellent conditions.
Land iguanas, giant tortoises and songbirds like the Darwin finch can all benefit from the increase in food.
For travelers accustomed to photographs of the Galapagos as an almost otherworldly volcanic desert, seeing the islands covered in fresh vegetation can be a beautiful surprise.
You May See Adaptation Happening Around You
One of the great privileges of visiting the Galapagos is realizing that evolution is not simply something that happened here long ago. It is still happening. Marine iguanas may change where and what they eat. Birds may respond to different food sources. Animals may move between feeding areas as ocean conditions shift.
With an expert Naturalist Guide beside you, those observations become more than wildlife sightings. They become stories about how life adapts. That is the essence of a Quasar Safari-Style Adventure: getting close enough to nature to understand what you’re seeing, rather than simply checking an animal off a list.
Snorkeling May Feel Warmer
Many travelers are surprised by how cool Galapagos water can be—particularly around the western islands, where cold currents normally rise from the deep. During El Niño, sea temperatures tend to rise. What you encounter underwater will vary by site and by the conditions at the time, but Guests who typically find snorkeling temperatures chilly may appreciate snorkeling experiences during El Niño years as waters are warmer.
What About Seeing Wildlife Loss?
Because the Galapagos is a completely natural ecosystem, it is possible to encounter animals that have died from natural causes during any year. El Niño can place additional pressure on certain marine species when food becomes harder to find, so these encounters may become somewhat more likely during a strong event.
It’s an honest part of visiting a truly wild place. But it is important to put that possibility in context.
A Galapagos expedition encompasses multiple islands, ecosystems, species, and experiences each day. One moment might involve observing the challenges faced by a marine species, while another might bring a hillside filled with flourishing vegetation, nesting birds, a giant tortoise feeding beside the trail, or dolphins and sea lions playing around your panga. Nature here has never been static.
That is precisely what makes experiencing it firsthand so meaningful. The Galapagos is not a zoo, and it does not attempt to present only one side of nature. It offers something far more interesting: a window into an ecosystem functioning on its own terms.
How Quasar Adapts During El Niño
Nature leads the way on every Quasar Safari-Style Adventure. During El Niño, that philosophy becomes even more valuable. Our captains and expert Galapagos guides assess conditions throughout each expedition and adapt the Guest experience where possible—making the most of what nature is offering and helping Guests understand the changes they are witnessing.
We monitor NOAA forecasts and evolving conditions in the islands, while our Naturalist Guides bring something equally valuable: firsthand knowledge gained day after day in the Galapagos.
After 40 years here, we know there is no substitute for experience on the ground—or, in our case, on the water. A changing environment also gives our Guides an opportunity to do what they do best: turn observations into understanding.
Why has vegetation suddenly flourished here?
Why are marine iguanas feeding differently?
Why are certain seabirds congregating in one location rather than another?
Those are the questions that transform a wildlife sighting into a genuine connection with the Galapagos.
So, Is an El Niño Year Still a Good Time to Visit the Galapagos?
For many travelers, absolutely.
If your expectation is that nature should look exactly the same every month and every year, the Galapagos has never really worked that way. But if what draws you here is the chance to experience a living, evolving ecosystem up close, El Niño offers another fascinating chapter in a story that has been unfolding for millennia.
Some marine species may be less abundant in certain places. The water will likely be warmer. Rainfall may increase.
At the same time, the islands may be exceptionally green. Land wildlife can flourish. Snorkeling can feel more comfortable. And you may have the rare opportunity to witness some of the very adaptations that made the Galapagos famous in the first place.
It won’t be a lesser Galapagos. It may simply be a different Galapagos.
And after 40 years of exploring these islands, we’ve learned that some of their most memorable moments are the ones nature never puts on the itinerary.
Still Curious? We’re Happy to Talk
If El Niño is influencing your decision about when to visit, you don’t have to sort through forecasts and headlines alone.
Our team has experienced El Niño in the Galapagos firsthand, and we’re happy to talk through what we know, what we’re monitoring, and what the experience could look like during the dates you’re considering.
Call us at (866) 481-7790, or book a call with one of our Expedition Designers.
We’ll give you an honest assessment so you can decide whether the adventure is right for you. Because in the Galapagos, there is rarely only one version of extraordinary.
